Meeting Notes from January 16, 2018
 
President Marv opened the meeting with a hearty good morning! Harvey Newcomb led the club in the Rotary Pledge.
 
Announcements
 
Our sunshine lady, Ann Searles, announced that Dick Moenning had fallen recently in his kitchen but was recovering well. A get well card will be passed around so we can extend to him our good wishes.
 
Susan Prout let us know that she was having some issues with her computer program and thus our dues bills this quarter will be coming to us the old-fashioned way, on paper.
 
Linda Gerber has three announcements. International Committee will meet Monday, Jan. 22, at RI. Second, the Mexico City trip will be April 16-19. We are supporting a program there training surgeons. Third, regarding the Doodle survey to pick a date in February for the Strategy meeting, it appears that the consensus date is Monday, Feb. 26.
 
Marv Edelstein had several announcements. He thanked Ann Searles for organizing a group of Rotarians to attend the memorial service for former club member Sid Doolittle. We will plant a tree in his honor. On Feb. 17, there is a Rotary Grant Management seminar. It would be great if club members would attend. And finally, on Wednesday, Jan. 31, a joint dinner with the noon club will be held at Chef’s Station at 6. A great opportunity for Rotary fellowship.
 
Kate Collinson announced that the Community Service Committee is accepting men's athletic socks in January for the Night Ministry. 
 
Roasts & Boasts
 
Gary Peterson didn’t know if it was a roast or boast, but as he walked in, Susan greeted him with a dues bill.
 
Bill Vernon boasted his son on his 15th birthday.
 
Ann Searles noted that she has three more customers who want our holiday nuts. It’s easy--just sell!
 
Marv Edelstein noted that his shoulder was coming along very well and he has two more weeks of therapy. But the other day he tripped on a cord and hurt his lower back!
 
Albert called Dave Simmons to the front for two questions. First, how has Rotary impacted his life? Dave stated that it enabled him to offer service above self, outside of the family and work environments. And what about Dave is there that most people don’t know? He has moved 42 times in his life, often because Kerstin, his wife, who is a minister, gets transferred often.
 
Special Presentation
 
Marissa Naujokas and Joan Borg came to the front. Marissa stated that they have collected about 85% of the Holiday sales funds, and that we will meet our goal of $33,000!
 
Marissa Naujokis and Joan Borg
 
As a special incentive this year to encourage more selling, the Holiday committee offered some of the club’s Paul Harris points as an incentive. Marissa announced that Holly Halliday will receive 500 Paul Harris points for being the first year member to sell the most.
 
Also, a drawing was held of members who had sold at least $600 in holiday products and/or donated $300 cash for the sale. The winners, receiving 500 Paul Harris points each, were John and Ann Searles, Steve Seiber, Steve Goranson, and Sam Lovering.
 
Paul Harris Award
 
Steve Carlson received the Paul Harris +8 award.
Dale Bradley received the Paul Harris +3 award.
 
Marv Edelstein and Steve Carlson
 
Marv Edelstein and Dale Bradley
 
Program
 
Don Haider - Northwestern University
 
Fran Caan introduced Don Heider, Professor Emeritus of Strategy, Kellogg School of Management, who spoke on the economic outlook for 2018. He has been at Northwestern since 1972. He is the only academic ever to be named both a Congressional and White House fellow. His book, When Government Comes to Washington, won a 2012 best book award. He specializes in non-profit management and organization.
 
Don noted that 2018 can be categorized as a “Goldilocks and the 3 Bears” year. Goldilocks is the growing US and international economy. A pleasant surprise from 2017 was that the international economy grew at a healthy pace. We of course know about the US economy, which continues to expand.
 
So what then are the “Three Bears” that can affect this rosy scenario? Don noted that economic forecasts are notoriously unreliable, and that he is not an economist. As John Galbraith famously said, the reason we have economists is so that astrologers look good. Yogi Berra said that it is very hard to make forecasts because they are in the future. The point is well taken; this talk is just a guess at future events. The three bears are economic and political events, China, and inflation.
 
2017 was a spectacular year, with low inflation, numerous highs on the stock market, etc. Economists had a great year with their predictions, maybe even coming in too low on some of them. The biggest miss for economists was that the rest of the world expanded at the greatest rate in at least the last ten years. Even Japan expanded. 
 
What about 2018? Originally, the prediction was in the 2-2.5% growth level. Then the Tax Act was passed. It will likely provide additional stimulus, with of course future growth in the debt. Unemployment should go down further, and there should be additional capital investment. Is this stimulus needed? Will it result in a ramping up in inflation, causing the Fed to increase rates further-and thus possibly increase the chance for a recession later in this year or in 2019? Will the yield curve invert, a good predictor of a possible recession? Or will the great stock market run continue, with continued economic expansion? Of course, a shock like 9/11 or a debt disater in China can throw all of these predictions off. We will have to wait and see.
 
Don Haider and Marv Edelstein
 
Guests & Milestones
 
Visiting Rotarian
 
John Wertymer, Wilmette Harbor
 
Other Guests
 
Jeff Owen, prospective member
Frank Paul, former club member
Patida Phanithullawat, “C”, Youth Exchange Student
 
Club Anniversary
 
Steve Carlson, 20 years
 
 
 
Sponsors